![]() Central factors for stability are economic prosperity and normative commitment to the organization. ![]() A statistical examination of explanatory factors of the distribution of violence shows that minimal differences in the initial conditions open up pathways to the escalation of violence. Monte-Carlo simulation experiments reveal a constant danger of a Hobbesian war of all against all. Since criminal organizations operate outside the state monopoly of violence, they provide a laboratory for studying war and state in the making: Organizational stability remains dependent on the loyalty of the Mafiosi. Outbreak of wars is replicated by the simulation model. Cosa Nostra faced two so-called Mafia wars. As a paradigmatic case, the Sicilian Cosa Nostra provides the background for the formulation of the model assumptions. ![]() The paper describes a simulation model of conflict escalation in criminal organizations, investigating conditions of stability and collapse of the organization.
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